Kicking off the month of October, we have three ranked vs ranked matchups this weekend in college football, each with some pretty big implications attached to them.
If you want to see elite young quarterback play, you have Alabama and Mississippi State. If you want to see a massive underdog try to stop the best player in America, you have Ohio State and Iowa. If you want to truly know if the Florida Gators are back, watch how they play against a tough Missouri team.
Here is how I would predict and bet on each of the Top 25 ranked matchups this weekend in college football.
#7 Alabama (-5.5) at #16 Miss. St.:
Kicking off the week 5 slate is an expected fireworks show between two young star quarterbacks in Alabama’s Keelon Russell and Mississippi State’s Kamario Taylor.
Both teams enter with a 4-0 record this season but the Bulldogs weren’t exactly the talk of the sport this past offseason, as they are right now.
The Bulldogs entered the 2026 season with a projected O/U win total of 4.5 after a disappointing 5-8 record in 2025, but have certainly found their leader in sophomore quarterback Kamario Taylor.
Taylor has thrown for 1,192 yards with 14 touchdowns to go along with just 2 interceptions, and will have a real opportunity to add to those numbers against the Crimson Tide’s 88th ranked passing defense.
On the contrary, Crimson Tide quarterback Keenon Russell also has a big opportunity to expose this Bulldog defense. Russell has thrown for 1,129 yards to go with 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, while the Bulldogs pass defense ranks 114th in the FBS.
I can see this game going either way, but I just think the moment and spotlight that is being put on this Bulldog team is too much for right now.
My Pick: Alabama -5.5
#5 Ohio State (-14.5) at #14 Iowa:
This is the game of the week. Can Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith, the best player in the sport, take over and dominate against one of the nation’s best defenses on the road in an incredibly tough road environment at Iowa?
What we saw from the Hawkeyes last week was pure magic. A team that struggled to move the ball for almost the entirety of the game, puts together a magical drive to stun the Michigan Wolverines in the big house.
As good of a win as it was for the Hawkeyes last week, their offense mustered just 241 yards and their always reliable running game was shut down to 58 yards on 24 carries.
For the Buckeyes, they are one of if not the most talented team in the country and have already played in a big game environment once this season, losing to Texas in week 2.
Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith provides a major mismatch for the Hawkeyes defense, a primarily zone scheme run by longtime defensive coordinator Phil Parker, Smith caught 4 passes for 89 yards and a touchdown as a true freshman when these two teams last met in 2024, resulting in a 35-7 Buckeyes win.
If you really want to go ahead and matchup with Smith in quarters coverage like the Hawkeyes do and make your safeties responsible for help on the star wideout, I don’t see it going very well.
However, the Buckeyes have really struggled to run the ball this season (76th in FBS) which is an opportunity that I think the Hawkeyes take advantage of to stay in this game.
I think the Hawkeyes stay in this game deep into the second half, but ultimately the Buckeyes talent is too much to handle for Iowa to walk away with a victory.
My Pick: Iowa +14.5
#8 Florida (-5.5) at #25 Missouri:
Florida is coming off a massive blowout win against Ole Miss and will bring their high powered offense on the road to Missouri, a team that has really struggled against AP Top 10 opponents the last 10 seasons.
The Tigers have a record of 1-14 against Top 10 teams since 2016 and the Gators are not the team you want to face right now if you want to turn that record around.
Led by Jadan Baugh, one of the best running backs in the country, the Gators have flipped a switch under new head coach Jon Sumrall and offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner.
The Gators will bring the 5th ranked total offense in the FBS to Columbia and if the Tigers aren’t prepared for it then it will be a long day for Tiger fans.
The Tigers are coming off an emotional 31-24 loss to Miss. St. last weekend and quarterback Austin Simmons has had an up and down season.
Simmons is completing just 57% of his passes in his last two games against Troy and Miss. St. and the Tigers are still without star running back Ahmad Hardy.
It was a defensive struggle at times for the Tigers last week and the Florida Gators are far and away the most talented offense they will have seen yet.
My Pick: Florida -5.5
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